Science and society of climate predictions


Disciplinary field: Ocean/Atmosphere
Level: M1 or M2
Credits: 3 ECTS



Teacher: A. Giannini (ENS)
Teaching type: Cours/TD/TP
Hourly volume: 30h



Evaluation: Rédaction d’un article de ~1000 mots, sur un cas d’étude d’application de la prévision climatique, ciblant soit une région géographique, soit un secteur de l’économie, la société, etc. où la prévision est exploitée.


Keywords: El Niño, prévision climatique, vulnérabilité, local knowledge, probabilité, incertitude.
Prerequisites: Physique du climat [L3 de Hervé Le Treut, ou autre cours en sciences du climat, en dynamique des fluides, etc.]

Is seasonal climate prediction a useful decision tool? Developed at the end of the 1990s, following the successful prediction of an El Niño event made by Cane and Zebiak in 1986, seasonal climate prediction is at the core of the World Meteorological Organization’s concept of “climate services”. In 5 meetings, we will alternate the exploration of the scientific basis of predictability and prediction and its socio-economic context. Each 3-hour meeting will include a presentation synthesizing knowledge and concepts on the topics listed below and a discussion based on assigned readings from the scientific literature.